Past and Furture

Climate Comparison: Istanbul, Turkey and Buenos Aires, Argentina

For an interesting climate comparison I tried to find a location with similar latitudes but in opposite hemispheres. Buenos Aires seemed like the best because it is also near the coast and shares similar characteristics.

(Map of Buenos Aires and Istanbul, Source: Google Maps)

For the Köppen Geiger Classification both Buenos Aires and Istanbul have a C, or Mediterranean, climate. This makes sense because both are in the midlatitudes and near water. However, Istanbul is a Csa classification and Buenos Aires is Cfa. Both share the same temperature rating: "a" for the hot summers but they differ in precipitation. Istanbul has the "s" for dry summers where Buenos Aires has an "f" rating for fully humid. This can be attributed to the fact that Buenos Aires is slightly closer to the equator and that means different air mass circulation.

(Air masses and circulation patterns, source: Islandnet.com)

The image above shows the air circulation and patterns around the globe. This shows the source of Buenos Aires' copious precipitation and Istanbul's drier climate. Although they are close to the same latitudes, Buenos Aires is on the eastern side of the South American continent and there is a Maritime Tropical air mass right off the coast the circulates counter clockwise (Because it's in the Southern Hemisphere) and that brings all that moist ocean air right to the region. On the other hand, when you look at Istanbul you see that it is still getting Tropical air but it's Continental Tropical because it has been circulating over Africa. Also, because Istanbul is in the Northern Hemisphere the air circulates in the opposite direction: clockwise over the Mediterranean Sea.

(Another view of differing air masses, source: rst.dsf.nasa.gov)

Information Sources:

Climates and Climatology Lecture, Fred Chambers, GEOG 3232

http://buenosaires-dylanlewan.blogspot.com/

Past, Present, and Future of Istanbul, Turkey

Istanbul, Turkey has been on a wild ride as far as tectonics are concerned. Its journey has taken it from completely submerged underwater to tropical paradise, from Mediterranean to high mountaintops. This roller coaster is a doozy but it all goes to show the power behind our changing planet.

Present

(Current World Map, Source: lib.utexas.edu)

In order to effectively compare Turkey of the past with Turkey of the future a base line should be clearly defined. That means just a little recap of modern Turkey and its characteristics. Turkey is located in between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea at about 39˚N and 35˚E. It is classified as having a mostly Mediterranean climate with hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters. Current air masses that affect this area include the Asian High and several Mediterranean Lows. Because of the midlevel latitudes, Turkey has fairly variable weather throughout the year. There are very distinct seasons but nothing too extreme.

(Climograph for current day Istanbul, Source: istanbul.climatetemp.info)

There is moderate variation in temperature and precipitation, thanks to its latitude and regional air masses.


100 Million Years in the Past

(Earth 100 million years ago, Source: ncdc.noaa.gov)

In the not so distant geologic past, 100 million years or so, Turkey was under water. This could be because the ice caps were holding less water and the oceans were at higher levels. It was also about 10˚ closer to the equator in latitude because of tectonic forces. Both of these factors have major impacts on the region’s weather and climate. Because the country is underwater, I will just focus on the land nearby and the area as a whole. Much like where it is now, the region is centered on a small sea. This one was a little bigger than the Mediterranean Sea, near where Istanbul is now. I think in the past Istanbul was a fair comparison with Muscat, Oman. Muscat is on the coast of the Indian Sea and at around 30˚ latitude, much like 100 million-year-old Turkey. Using that comparison I would expect old Turkey to be a very turbulent place being so close to the ITCZ and large bodies of water. I would also expect a climograph to be very similar to the one below.

(Modified climograph of Muscat, Oman to represent Turkey 100 million years ago, Source: climatetemp.info)

I think this is a good representation of old Turkey because it shows the less variable, warmer temperatures, as the region was much closer to the equator. This would lead to higher levels of insolation and the area would absorb more solar energy. For Turkey itself, being underwater and all, it would retain a lot of that energy because water heats and cools slower than land. This process also explains the little variation in temperatures.

100 Million Years in the Future

(Estimated map of Earth 150 million years in the future, Source: scotese.com)

As the tectonic plates continue to shift and move Africa was smash into where Turkey currently resides. As it pushing up into Europe the Mediterranean Mountains will be formed and Turkey will sit right on top. Also, the whole region will move farther north. Having always been near water, this new location will drastically alter Turkey’s weather and climate. It will find itself land locked and, for the first time, dealing with continentality. Also, the higher latitude will greatly change the current air masses affecting the area.

(Modified climograph for Moscow, Russia to represent Turkey 100 year in the future, Source: climatetemp.info)

This modified climograph of Moscow, Russia serves as a fairly good estimation for the weather and climate of new Turkey. Like Moscow, Turkey will be a landlocked subarctic region with very high temperature variation throughout the year and fairly low precipitation. However, unlike Moscow, new Turkey will have a very high elevation that may cause greater precipitation but if I were to guess I would predict a good majority of Turkey would be covered in new glaciers, as the pattern of melt/thaw continues. Of course, in order for glaciers to develop snow must fall.