Past, Present, and Future of Istanbul, Turkey

Istanbul, Turkey has been on a wild ride as far as tectonics are concerned. Its journey has taken it from completely submerged underwater to tropical paradise, from Mediterranean to high mountaintops. This roller coaster is a doozy but it all goes to show the power behind our changing planet.

Present

(Current World Map, Source: lib.utexas.edu)

In order to effectively compare Turkey of the past with Turkey of the future a base line should be clearly defined. That means just a little recap of modern Turkey and its characteristics. Turkey is located in between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea at about 39˚N and 35˚E. It is classified as having a mostly Mediterranean climate with hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters. Current air masses that affect this area include the Asian High and several Mediterranean Lows. Because of the midlevel latitudes, Turkey has fairly variable weather throughout the year. There are very distinct seasons but nothing too extreme.

(Climograph for current day Istanbul, Source: istanbul.climatetemp.info)

There is moderate variation in temperature and precipitation, thanks to its latitude and regional air masses.


100 Million Years in the Past

(Earth 100 million years ago, Source: ncdc.noaa.gov)

In the not so distant geologic past, 100 million years or so, Turkey was under water. This could be because the ice caps were holding less water and the oceans were at higher levels. It was also about 10˚ closer to the equator in latitude because of tectonic forces. Both of these factors have major impacts on the region’s weather and climate. Because the country is underwater, I will just focus on the land nearby and the area as a whole. Much like where it is now, the region is centered on a small sea. This one was a little bigger than the Mediterranean Sea, near where Istanbul is now. I think in the past Istanbul was a fair comparison with Muscat, Oman. Muscat is on the coast of the Indian Sea and at around 30˚ latitude, much like 100 million-year-old Turkey. Using that comparison I would expect old Turkey to be a very turbulent place being so close to the ITCZ and large bodies of water. I would also expect a climograph to be very similar to the one below.

(Modified climograph of Muscat, Oman to represent Turkey 100 million years ago, Source: climatetemp.info)

I think this is a good representation of old Turkey because it shows the less variable, warmer temperatures, as the region was much closer to the equator. This would lead to higher levels of insolation and the area would absorb more solar energy. For Turkey itself, being underwater and all, it would retain a lot of that energy because water heats and cools slower than land. This process also explains the little variation in temperatures.

100 Million Years in the Future

(Estimated map of Earth 150 million years in the future, Source: scotese.com)

As the tectonic plates continue to shift and move Africa was smash into where Turkey currently resides. As it pushing up into Europe the Mediterranean Mountains will be formed and Turkey will sit right on top. Also, the whole region will move farther north. Having always been near water, this new location will drastically alter Turkey’s weather and climate. It will find itself land locked and, for the first time, dealing with continentality. Also, the higher latitude will greatly change the current air masses affecting the area.

(Modified climograph for Moscow, Russia to represent Turkey 100 year in the future, Source: climatetemp.info)

This modified climograph of Moscow, Russia serves as a fairly good estimation for the weather and climate of new Turkey. Like Moscow, Turkey will be a landlocked subarctic region with very high temperature variation throughout the year and fairly low precipitation. However, unlike Moscow, new Turkey will have a very high elevation that may cause greater precipitation but if I were to guess I would predict a good majority of Turkey would be covered in new glaciers, as the pattern of melt/thaw continues. Of course, in order for glaciers to develop snow must fall.